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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-04T23:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-04T23:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17663/-1
CME Note: The start time of the CME is possibly earlier than indicated (updated from original time of 2021-09-05T01:09Z). There was missing data in COR2A before the indicated start time. The eruption was associated with a B4.5 flare that started at 2021-09-04T21:06Z and peaked at 2021-09-04T21:33Z. There was EUV wave signature associated with the eruption and visible in SDO/AIA 193. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: No discernable arrival signature was observed for this CME in the avilable data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-09T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17662/1
Model Inputs:
2021-09-04T23:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=274.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2021-09-05T10:51Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-09-09T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=1
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210905_105100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 91.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2021-09-05T16:05Z

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